Archive for the ‘Daily Forex Technicals’ Category
FX Thoughts for the Day
May 21st, 2010
Cable is retaining the rangen 1.4250-1.4520 in which it has been trading over the last few days within the overall downtrend. Our view continues to remain the same on the pair. A strong break below 1.4250 see the pair moving further down towards 1.41-40 in the coming sessions/days. While the Support at 1.4250 continues to hold, we might expect it to retain the range (1.4250-1.4520) in which it has been trading for sometime. Note that the 8-DMA (currently aat 1.4481) is the significant Resistance level to watch for on the upside which is expected hold and retain the overall downtrend.
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Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
May 21st, 2010
The pair managed to breach the neckline shown in our reports yesterday at 1.2430, while pushing towards the upside to closely near the main key target at 1.2570. This confirms natural trading within the descending channel will continue; therefore, we expect to target resistance levels at 1.2950. Some bearish correction is expected due to negativity from momentum indicators, but in overall a bullish intraday trend is expected; targeting 1.2785 initially and requires 1.2470 to remain intact.
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Technical Analysis for Crosses
May 21st, 2010
The pair was able to touch the technical target not only for yesterday's scenario or for weekly report but it reached the technical target of the short term basis at 126.80 zones, which we defined long time ago-check the recorded low-. Now, the bullish harmonic AB=CD pattern of the four-hour chart shows that correctional upside movements are to be witnessed over intraday basis, supported by the positive divergence appearing on Stochastic. Note: in the next week we will discuss together the potential targets of the short and medium term basis.
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USDJPY Bears On Course For The 88.23/12 Level
May 21st, 2010
With the pair clearing its May 07'10 low at 90.82 to trade as low as 88.94 on Thursday, USDJPY remains vulnerable to the downside for further weakness towards its May 06'10 low at 88.23. This is in line with its short term weakness started from the 94.97 level which now looks to even force further weakness towards the 88.12 level, its Mar 04'10 low if the 88.23 level is decisively violated. Below there will open the door for more downside towards its Dec 09'09 low at 87.35 and then its 2010 low at 84.80. Its relative strength index is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, above the 93.63 level, its May 13'10 high must be broken to reverse its current weakness and open the door for more gains towards the 94.76/97 levels, its April 04'10/2010 highs. Unless the latter scenario materializes, our bias remains to the downside for a decline towards the 88.23/12 level and beyond.
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Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD
May 21st, 2010
After some hesitation, the recovery of the the Euro continued on Thursday with a strong upward impulse. Euro/Dollar climbed from 1.2305 to 1.2589 yesterday, in converse with the Interbank sentiment projection, at around -2%, closing the day at 1.2483. On the 1 hour chart the downward channel is now under serious threat. Break above the nearest resistance and today's top at 1.2668 may trigger further rising of the Euro. Going bellow yesterday's bottom and first support at 1.2305, however, should confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next target 1.2143. Today's focus is on Germany GDP Q1, France PMI, Germany PMI, EU 16 PMI and Current accounts, and Germany IFO business climate at 6, 7, 7:30 and 8 GMT respectively. Quotes are moving way above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating bullish pressure. The values of all RSI, MACD and CCI indicators are positive and inclining upwards on the 1 hour chart, giving overall long signals.
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Daily Technical Analysis
May 21st, 2010
The EURUSD had a significant recovery yesterday, topped at 1.2596 but closed lower at 1.2487, still in a high volatile market. The Dollar rally was stopped by bad data in the last two days. The SNB intervention buying the Euro and rumor about the ECB intervention also responsible to this bullish sentiment although we have no substantial progress on the Euro zone debt crisis. Regardless of how we see the fundamental situation and rumors in the market, technically this fact could open the door for further upside recovery testing the major trendline support. The bias is bullish in nearest term targeting 1.2630 area even 1.2700 region but I still believe that the main scenario remains to the downside. Immediate support at 1.2400. Break below that area could wane the upside recovery.
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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
May 21st, 2010
EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing signalling that a short-term low has likely been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target.
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The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY
May 21st, 2010
Clearly yesterday was not anticipated… It does open up a larger downside risk should the 88.13-21 lows break. There are a variety of possible complications and therefore it may be better to sit out and observe. If the upside extends further then the 90.62-96 area looks critical to me and I feel it will probably hold. If so then a renewed attack on yesterday's 88.97 low would be expected and after a pullback we should be watching for a test of the 88.13-21 corrective lows. Breach extends losses to 87.51-74 and possibly 87.05 (max 86.76 - dependent on where this correction stalls.)
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Market Morning Briefing
May 21st, 2010
The Euro (1.2577) has bounced back from its low of 1.2294 on speculation that EU will take further more steps to ease the debt crisis concerns. Resistance is seen at 1.2620, a strong break above which might see 1.27-2720 on the upside today. Dollar-Yen (90.24) has bounced back from its low of 88.95 after the Japan's Finance Minister said they are watching the currency market movements. It is now trading below the 200-DMA (currently at 91.10).Aussie (0.8235) also has bounced back from its low of 0.8071 on speculation that RBA would intervene. It has Resistance at 0.83 which might be tested today.
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FX Technical Commentary
May 21st, 2010
Euro 1.2580 Initial support at 1.2102 (April 2006 low) followed by 1.2000 (Round Number Support). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2597 (May 14 high) followed by 1.2747 (May 12 high)